Raul touched my shoulder; recap of Indy Eleven's first home game

I was just about to find my seat in Section 103 in the East goal end; where the Cosmos forwards were practicing shooting. Soccer balls were flying everywhere. As I sat down, I heard a scream from a little girl. She had just been struck in the face by a wayward strike. Luckily for her, she hadn't rolled down the bleacher stairs and her dad was quickly trying to check on her. I ran down to help her and made sure she wasn't bleeding and concussed (For the record, she was fine) and held her hand for a few moments as she wept - probably thinking to herself - "I hate soccer!"

Suddenly a hand rested on my shoulder and spoke to the young girl - "Are you okay?" It definitely wasn't your regular Midwest draw. In fact, it had a bit of a Spanish flavor to it. I looked up and realized that the man whose hand was on my shoulder was devilishly handsome and frighteningly familiar. 

I stood up immediately and realized it was Raul! Within two minutes of being at the stadium, I was standing side by side by one of the greatest European forwards of all time. Raul had jumped the bleachers to come check on this little girl and spoke inaudibly to  her. While her dad had no idea who this man was, people around us were starting to take pictures of Raul (if any of you reading this has one with me in it - I'm wearing a Man United jacket - PLEASE share it with me), and the spanish forward gave the little girl a kiss on the cheek and went back to warming up.

Seriously- RAUL!

I remember watching Raul play for Real Madrid against Manchester United in the early 2000s. In a team comprising of the likes of Zinedine Zidane, Luis Figo and Ronaldo, the young spanish trequartista stood above the rest. Admittedly United's defense that day (and that season) was rather inexperienced - A young Rio Ferdinand was supported by error-prone Wes Brown, up-and-comer John O'Shea and the simplicity of Gary Neville. However, I doubt that even a Maldini lead AC Milan defense could have stopped Raul that day. He scored a brace, and was involved in the build up for every single attacking foray by the Spanish conquistadors.

History will look at that Madrid side as one of the all-time best XIs. And, even though some will focus on the galacticos (Zidane, Figo, Beckham, Ronaldo, Carlos), Raul's contribution and leadership is beyond doubt. 

What made Raul such a good player? It was his speed of thought, rather than his foot speed. It was his ability to play one-twos is tight areas and allow his intelligence to create chances for others. His heading ability was vastly underrated, as was his work rate. I remember watching him run back 70 yards to make a tackle on an impressive Ryan Giggs; when Figo decided to forego his defensive duties.

Here are some of his goals from YouTube. If you are just getting into football, you should spend some time watching his goals in other videos on YouTube as well. Trust me, it's worth your time. Golazos

All of these  aforementioned attributes were on display - albeit momentarily - in tonight's game between Indy Eleven and the New York Cosmos. Youth coaches should show replays of Raul's goal as it was an example of how forwards should get free of man-marking on set pieces. During a corner a few minutes earlier, Raul checked back towards the near post. This time, he made the same run, but checked again and found just enough space to slot the ball home. 

The game itself was largely dominated by Cosmos. Although Raul scored the goal, the best player on the pitch tonight was Marcos Senna. Cosmos played the ball out of the back - perhaps due to the poor kicking ability of their keeper Maurer (who bravely put up with some insults from my section behind the East end goal) and the ball inevitably landed at Senna's feet. Senna was omnipresent all over the pitch, and was clearly asked to play the deep-lying playmaker role; a role he thrived in during his time at Villareal. 

As for Indy Eleven, I was impressed by our defense. Erick Norales continues to be the leader of the defense, and excelled playing alongside Greg Janicki. The Michigan-born Janicki has played in all the North American soccer leagues and brings some much-need physicality to this Indy Eleven back line. On-loan Marco Franco was impressive on his debut as well, but will need to improve his positioning; the way his compatriot on the other wing, Jamie Frias, has been able to do since his shaky start last season.

Although the technically superior Cosmos dominated possession, we were very impressive on the counter attack. Debutante forward,  Brian Brown held up the play well, but found himself isolated for the vast majority of the game.  I don't think we break as quickly when Kleberson is on the pitch; as the Brazilian maestro likes to possess the ball. Coach Sommer will have to find a way to include his marquee player without affecting our counter-attacking prowess.

My biggest concern is the tactic that bothered me last season - Sommer seems to ask his full backs to not overlap past his midfielders. Admittedly, we were on the back foot today, but there were possible 2 v 1 opportunities that were not availed due to the defensive mindset that coach Sommer seems to have. I hope that changes as the season progresses. 

Certainly, last week, I was encouraged by Indy Eleven's ability to switch play and possess the ball. In some ways, Sommer's tactical decisions will influence the success of this team. Charlie Ruegg and substitute Don Smart will have crucial roles to play in this team as well.

All and all, a fantastic outing on a beautiful spring day. A packed stadium. NOT a loss. A goal by one of my favorite all-time players. And, being able to be less than a foot away from him. #ManCrush

Indy is red and blue. 

Why did United miss out on Lucas Moura?

Lucas Moura, one of Brazil's most promising youngsters, recently signed for Paris St. Germain.  His transfer fee stands at a whopping 45 Million euros; making him the most expensive teenager of all time.  There is no doubting the potential of Lucas, but should United have attempted to match the transfer fee?

Maybe.

Sir Alex declared that he was astounded that a teenager could cost that much money, stating that football had gone mad.  He has also previously cited City and PSG's ability to outspend everybody as a problem in the game.  Is he being a bit hypocritical - given that United have spend big money on players like Veron, Berbatov, etc. previously?

Yes and no.

Yes - A transfer fee converter reveals that Rooney's (who was 19 at the time he signed for United) transfer fee would be equivalent to ~60 million in today's transfer market.  So, when Sir Alex claims he cannot understand how PSG could spend massive money on the young Lucas, he is clearly being a touch disingenuous.

No - And this is what other fans do not understand.  No United fan believes that big-money signings have not been a big part of United's success.  All we are saying is that United is different in that the big signings supplement an already established set of players that united have developed.  Let's look at some examples -

1.  While Van Nistelrooy (19 million) was a big part of United's success in 2002-2003, there were already established United players present - Beckham, Giggs, Scholes, the Nevilles, etc.

2.  While the likes of Berbatov (30 million) helped United win the premier league, United already had developed Ronaldo, had Giggs and Scholes from the golden generation and had Fletcher, OShea, Evans, etc. from within the club.

This is what makes United different from Chelsea - who do not develop their own players and from Arsenal - who win nothing.


So back to the Moura thing.  Why have United missed out on him? I think a lot of United fans have said that it's because of the Glazers.  However, the evidence does not support this claim - United have spent big money on Anderson, Nani, Hargreaves and Berba since the Glazers took over.  It has also been revealed that United had agreed fees for both Moura and Hazard - which is the part of the transfer for which the Glazers are immediately accountable - the approval of transfer fee.

So, having ruled out the Glazers, we are left with SAF, Gill (the chief executive) and agents.  It is my opinion, that is is the combination of those three that has lead to our inability in the transfer market.  It is widely accepted that the role that agents play has gotten out of hand.  Agents continue to demand incredible bonuses for brokering deals and it seems like this will only continue to get worse.  SAF's fault is his stubbornness.  While he is willing to approve large transfer fees, he balks at the idea of paying 5 million to an agent - yes, he is probably ethically correct - but he has to live and operate within the times.  And the times are - the more marketable the player - the more his agent is going to make.  Gill is a decent enough fellow (despite what the MUST people will tell you), but he must improve his negotiation skills if United are going to succeed in the transfer market.


Now we are left with the whole RVP saga.  I certainly hope that RVP signs - but, I must admit, I remain very pessimistic about it all.

United - City review - What was Fergie thinking?

Three weeks ago, United were eight points clear of City.  Cue the collapse - losses to Wigan and City combined with a draw, at home to Everton, and the Manchester clubs are now even on points.  City, however, have a far superior goal difference.  The game was a tense affair; let's examine the tactical breakdown.

Starting line-ups - United set up in the expected 4-3-3 and Fergie brought back Park from the wilderness.  Smalling replaced Evans at center back with Phil Jones as the wing-back.  Giggsy and Nani were on either wing with Rooney up-top by himself.  There has been much ridicule of Fergie for his decision to not pick Valencia.  Although, I admit, I was very surprised when the line-ups were announced, I can see what the legendary scotsman was thinking.  The United players were asked to force City wide - with the realization that Rio and Smalling would beat Tevez and Aguero in the air.   This meant that United played very narrow and for this reason, Valencia was dropped to the bench.  Valencia is most effective when flying down the wing and continuously stretches the play.  Therefore, having him in the team would allow City to play through the middle and Fergie wanted to eliminate that possibility.  With that idea, he played Nani on the right - with the knowledge that Nani would continuously cut inside and therefore give City the ability to only attack through the wings.  And it almost worked.

As for City, Mancini set up in an attacking 4-2-3-1 with Barry and Yaya playing in holding positions, and Tevez, Aguero, Nasri and Silva playing in interchangeable forward positions.  Mancini has been ostracized for perceived defensive tactics, but in this game, it was clear that he was trying to win the game outright.  The italian matched the United midfield by setting up Barry and Toure against Scholes and Carrick respectively.  For the first few minutes, Park found himself in space as the extra-man, but shortly, Lescott was picking up his runs and the korean forward was invisible the rest of the game.  Zabaleta's runs beyond Giggsy were absolutely breath-taking.  The argentine defender, possibly buoyed by the presence of Maradona, played with incredibly passion and speed and caused Evra all sorts of problems.

For the first 10 minutes or so, United controlled the game.  But, at no point did it seem that United would  score.  It was almost as if they had set up to play out a 0-0 which is in itself disappointing.  The entire first half was a tactical battle played out in midfield - Carrick and Barry stood out for their respective teams - mostly because of their defensive play.  And then came the goal.  City's captain, Vincent Kompany, had been sent off the last time the two sides met.  His retribution was powering a header past DeGea that it may have won City the title.  Most of the media blamed Smalling for the goal.  However, I think the blame lies on the shoulders of the older, more experienced, Rio Ferdinand.  Rio was guilty of getting in Smalling's way; which allowed Kompany to out-jump the ex-Fulham defender.  As the half-time whistle blew, I was convinced that Fergie would take Park off and put Valencia on.  That did not happen.

Kompany scores possibly the most important goal in City's history.

As I have mentioned earlier, I can sort of see why Fergie benched Valencia.  I have absolutely no explanation for why he came on in the 79th minute.  Valencia is joint-leader in the assist table with David Silva - despite the fact that he has played in 8 less games than the Spanish forward.  He is undoubtedly United's most lethal attacking option.  If your team needs a goal, you would think that he would the first sub onto the field? Fergie gave Valencia just over ten minutes to impact the game.  Even as a United fan, I cannot comprehend what the reasoning was for that decision.

While I have defended the decision to bench Valencia, I cannot defend the decision to start both Scholes and Giggs.  Don't get me wrong, they are two of my favorite players.  But, surely, at 37 and 38 years of age, they do not have the legs to compete against one of the most powerful midfields in Europe? Besides, by playing Giggs and Nani on the wings, Scholes' greatest asset - his distribution into space - was completely nullified.

But, anyway, credit also goes to Manchester City.  There were multiple occasions where they counter-attacked and could have scored more goals.  Apparently, getting past  Patrice Evra is the easiest thing in football these days.  In particular, Yaya Toure was a monster carrying the ball forward - and helped City control the midfield.  Yaya has flourished into one of the top midfielders in the world, and at 28, is reaching the levels that Barcelona expected of him.

Battle of the managers - Sorry, Sir Alex, but the Italian just jobbed you.

There was also the off-the-field battle between Fergie and Mancini, which I admit seemed to have been started by the old Glaswegian legend.  Sir Alex' temper is well-publicized and it was certainly on-show while he berated Mancini for 'complaining'.  Sir Alex - how many times have we watched you remonstrating with the referee?

With this loss and the subsequent two games, I certainly expect City to win the title.  If both teams win their respective games, it will be the first time that the title will have been won on goal-difference; and that would be pretty amazing.  Mancini's pressure-deflecting tactics are working wonders, and surely the Italian should be (along with Brendan Rogers) a strong candidate for manager of the year.  For those of you who have recently started watching football, this would be only the second time, in the premier league era, that a team other than United, Arsenal or Chelsea has won the league.  The only other time was Blackburn - under the tutelage of Liverpool legend Kenny Dalglish.  And Mancini deserves some serious credit.  This is also the first time in about 5 years that City has done the league double over United.  Noisy neighbors indeed.

As for United - it's time to revert back to 4-4-2 and hope that City has an off-day against Newcastle.

Next up - preview of the FA cup final and the big league games at the weekend.

Manchester City vs Manchester United - preview

This is it! This is the game that will decide it all.  Tomorrow, Manchester United will make the short trip across Manchester to the Etihad stadium to battle Manchester City for the title.  For those of you who have been living under a rock, here's the scenario - United are currently 3 points above City in the table with three games left before the end of the season.  City and United have one tricky away fixture left - to Newcastle and Sunderland respectively and a home game they should both comfortably win - QPR and Swansea respectively.  So, yes, it comes down to this game.  It's pretty simple - whoever wins this game will win the premier league.  A draw would suit United more.

Likely starting formations

City - Mancini is likely to flood the center of midfield and set up with a 4-3-3 formation.  This is the formation that destroyed United 6-1 earlier this season and is definitely City's best formation.  Although it can seem defensive at times, it is a formation designed to be flexible and powerful.  Moreover, it can be switched to a 4-3-1-2 during counterattacks.

United - SAF will probably try and match the formation and go 4-3-3.  This is the formation United use when playing away in Europe, and it will be how they set up at the Etihad.  It is definitely not United's most effective formation.  United would definitely switch to a 4-4-2 if a goal is required.

Probably starting line-ups

Keepers - Hart and DeGea.  These two pick themselves and are both in good form.

Fullbacks - Richards and Clichy vs Rafael and Evra.  Although Richards is coming back from injury, he is a shoe-in at right back because of his excellent positional awareness.  Plus his speed may set up some counterattacking opportunities.  Clichy will be preferred to Kolarov for the same reasons plus the fact that he can match Valencia for speed.  Besides, Kolarov could be the best defensive sub in the league when a goal is required! Although Rafael was terrible against Everton, his match fitness will see him selected ahead of Smalling.  Also, Rafael tends to do well in the big games (don't remind me about Bayern though).  United's captain, Evra, will be an automatic selection although, in my opinion, this has been his worst season as a United player.

Central defense - Lescott and Kompany vs Ferdinand and Evans.  Joleon Lescott and Johnny Evans have a lot in common.  They are both defenders that are lauded when playing well.  However, they are both capable of defensive lapses and Evans, in particular, will be looking to set things right after he was sent off at Old Trafford in 2011.  In Kompany, City have the best central defender in the premier league.  Ferdinand has been in good form, but may struggle against the speed of City's defense.  He is definitely going to play the sweeper role and sit back and gobble up anything Evans messes up on.

Yes, that actually happened.

Midfield - DeJong, Toure and Milner vs Scholes, Carrick and Jones.  De Jong will be selected ahead of Gareth Barry to nullify the influence of Paul Scholes.  I expect Nigel to man-mark Scholesy and simply play the ball to the other midfielders to distribute.  Toure, as I will talk about later, will be City's key player.  Milner had a good game against United last time and I expect him to be selected for his movement off-the-ball.  His speed will be difficult for United to handle.  Scholesy's distribution puts him ahead of Giggsy in the pecking order; although Giggsy's movement would be a huge asset.  I expect Giggsy to replace Scholesy at about the 60 minute mark as the ginger prince cannot last the full 90.  Carrick has had his best season in a United jersey and will play the quarterback position.  He will be responsible for tracking the runs of Milner and will hopefully make some crucial interceptions.  Jones will be selected for one reason and one reason only - competing with Toure.  Neither Scholes nor Carrick would be able to win headers in the air or track Toure's gut-busting runs from midfield.  Phil Jones has the muscle and speed to do both.  The disadvantage to play Jones in midfield is that he could not make a pass at Pamela Anderson.

Outside forwards - Tevez and Silva vs Nani and Valencia.  Tevez has been in fine-form since his return from the wilderness.  Back in December, Kartik Krishnayer, from EPL talk soccer, predicted that Tevez may be the catalyst that takes City to their first title in decades.  This is the game to ensure that that sentiment is true. Let's not forget that it was another ex-United player that sent United down to the old first division.  United legend, Denis Law, scored the goal for City that relegated Manchester United three decades ago.  Perhaps history will repeat itself and Tevez will score to win City the premier league.  Silva's creativity is stunning and he has been coming back into form of late.  I expect him to trouble Rafael at right back.  Ashley Young is defensively aware and may be selected against Nani.  But, Nani tends to play well against City and I think the Portuguese midfielder may score after cutting in from the left.  Valencia is an automatic selection on the right.

Strikers - Aguero vs Rooney.  Both strikers have been in fine form lately.  City's forwards will be more flexible - with Aguero and Tevez switching positions.

Achilles heel

United - Right back - Rafael, Fabio, Jones, Valencia, Smalling have all played on the right with varying degrees of success.  Sir Alex will be hoping that Rafael will have a good game, or else City's forwards will have a field day.

City - handling the pressure - Such is the strength of City's team that it is difficult to think of a weak link.  However, they have shown that they struggle to handle pressure at times.  When City were odds-on to win the premier league, they experienced their worst form of the season.  To counter that, once United were 8 points clear and Mancini started to declare that the Old Trafford outfit would win the league - City started winning games by five goal margins.  This is a high-pressure game and Mancini will be trying to take the pressure off his players.

Trump cards?

United - Play Park JiSung - Park is a big game player who has been used to nullify creative players in the middle of the park (refer to AC Milan and Chelsea for a perfect example of this).  However, his lack of match fitness and height make this an unlikely scenario.

Will he play tomorrow?

City - Go 4-4-2 - If Mancini decides to throw caution to the wind, he could play Adam Johnson and Silva on the wings and completely throw off united's tactical setup.  Again - an unlikely but fascinating scenario.

Key Players

Yaya Toure - Yaya is one of my favorite players in the premier league.  Strong, fast and tireless, he is a more muscular version of Chelsea's Ramires.  It is very difficult to track his runs from midfield and he will undoubtedly be involved in many counter attacks for the Etihad outfit.

Jonny Evans - Evans has had his best season in a United shirt.  Let's not forget, however, that he got himself sent off at Old Trafford and will need to have a near-perfect game to nullify City's potent strike force.

Key substitutes

Balotelli - He scored twice against United and the mercurial forward will be looking to repeat that form at the Etihad.

Chicharito - Last year's super-sub will undoubtedly be brought on if United find themselves a goal down .  Welbeck may be brought on if a little more ball-retention is required.

Prediction - 2-1 City.  I expect City to win this one as united will be cagey and likely to make some defensive lapses.  I certainly hope I'm wrong!

Round up of Week 32

Sunderland 0-0 Tottenham
The game ended 0-0 and that is about all you can say for a dire, tactical game where neither side deserved to win.  With Arsenal and Chelsea winning this weekend, Harry will need to inspire his team to some form in the last 6 games if he is to finish above Arsenal and/or win a Champions league spot.

Liverpool 1-1 Villa
Suarez had a good game overall and Gerrard's crosses were devastating.  However, Chris Herd's early goal had the home fans in a nervous mood.  Especially given that it was a result of some uncertain goalkeeping by their debutante, Doni.  It is fair to say that he did settle down after a shaky start.  Liverpool dominated the game from a possession (~70% to 30%) and shots (24 to 5) standpoint.  The telling statistic was that only 5 out of their 24 shots were on target.  King Kenny often cites bad luck as the villain of the season, but it is clear that the Anfield club are in dire need of an out-and-out striker.  I continue to be baffled by the decision to leave Maxi out of the game entirely.  To add insult to injury, Liverpool end the weekend a point behind their local rivals Everton - who they will be playing very soon in the FA cup.

Chelsea 2-1 Wigan
Most fans will talk about the decision that went United's way this weekend (more on that later), but on Saturday a key decision fell in the favor of another big club.  Ivanovic was clearly offside when he scored Chelsea's first goal.  Wigan can be proud of their performance at Stamford Bridge as they went toe-to-toe on possession and shots on goal.  However, the deciding factor in the game came late in stoppage time.  When the in-form Torres (what?)  showed brilliant technique to volley a pinpoint Drogba cross only to see it hit the far post.  Juan Mata was perfectly placed for a tap-in and Chelsea won the game.  I had earlier predicted Chelsea to end in 5th, but with Spurs showing shaky form, Chelsea have a strong shout to pip them for that final champions league spot.  Currently they are 3 points behind spurs and even on points with Newcastle United.

Manchester United 2-0 QPR
I recently wrote a blog about how the data shows that United does not get any more/less penalties than other teams.  However, this is the exact sort of game that rivals fans cite when they state the opposite.  My initial reaction to seeing the 'tackle' was - "Ashley Young dived."  The replay showed that although there was some contact, it was obvious that Young was going down before the contact was made.  Therefore, I would still maintain that it was a dive.  What made it worse was the fact that Young was blatantly offside when the ball was played, so it should have been a non-issue in the first place.  I firmly believe that diving should be punished retrospectively and I hope FIFA/UEFA/FA will implement that rule starting next season.  Once Derry was sent off, you knew United were going to win.  Rooney put away the penalty and United dominated the rest of the game, topping off with a Scholesy beauty.

It must be said that even with 10 men, QPR did not give United a ton of clear cut chances.  There were a couple of exceptions, of course.  In my preview, I had predicted that Taraabt  would be found wanting on his defensive duties.  That prediction almost came through as he allowed United's right back, Rafael to waltz into the 18 yard box and Scholesy played him a delicious dinged pass that landed in his stride.  Rafael tried to chip the goalkeeper but Kenny pushed the ball onto the post.  Another great opportunity was a vicious strike from my man-of-the-match, Michael Carrick, who managed to strike the upright.

It's a luxury to be able to criticize your team when they are sitting pretty on top of the league, but that is exactly what I will be doing - Rooney and Welbeck had poor games.  Despite a well-taken penalty, Rooney's overall performance was disappointing.  His passing and distribution were erratic and he was involved in an ugly tackle towards the start of the game.  Welbeck is young and a hard-working forward, but he is currently experiencing a drop in form.  Chicharito has also been struggling with second-season-itis.  Would Fergie please bring Berbatov out of the wilderness for the last few games? Today's game was begging for Berba's control and vision up-top and home games against Villa, Swansea and Everton would be perfect opportunities for Berba-type games.

Either way, with United sitting 8 points clear, the title will be staying at Old Trafford.

Arsenal 1-0 Manchester City
The much-hyped game of the weekend was rather disappointing overall.  I was surprised that Tevez did not start and that Benayoun did.  Also, why Wenger keeps picking Walcott is beyond me.  Yes, he has scored in a few games, but he is surely better coming off the bench in big games? With Clichy continuously showing walcott to the outside, and matching him for pace, Walcott was completely nullified.  Oxlade-Chamberlain, on the other hand, is capable of coming onto his left foot and creating a moment of magic.

I was also baffled by Arsenal's decision to constantly cross balls in the air.  With RVP coming deep, when the ball was sprayed to the wings, Arsenal were trying to aim for either Benayoun, Walcott or the on-rushing Rosicky.  Kompany, at least 6 inches taller than all of them, had no trouble heading out crosses.

I was a little disappointed with the Arsenal players' constant rolling around trying to get players carded.  I cannot count how many times the likes of Sagna, Santo and Walcott fell to the floor as though they had been shot.  Only to jump up like bunny-rabbits once the foul had been called.  Having said that, NOTHING excuses Balotelli's first tackle on man-of-the-match Alex Song.  That was a career ending tackle.  Luckily for Song, Balotelli caught him towards the top of the shin-guard... any higher... and that was a broken leg at best.  Balotelli was at his frustrating best in this game - yelling at teammates and shooting when a pass was a better option.  Eventually he did get sent off and deservedly so.  This sending off is his 4th of the season and with the widely-expected retrospective ban for his tackle on song, I am expecting that Balotelli will be missing for at least 5 games.  In fact, I am going to argue that he might has played his last game in a Citizens shirt as I expect him to move on in the summer.

Because you are an asshole

For the record, what a magnificent goal that was by Arteta.  Mikael Arteta was the player signed by Wenger to replace Nasri.  He is an intelligent player who sits deeper than Nasri did and is a very good passer of the ball.  During his time at Everton, he did not score a lot of goals, but when he did - they tended to be memorable ones.  That strike was deserving of winning any game.

After City went a goal down, Mancini finally put Tevez on, but by then it was way too late and Arsenal should have had a second right at the end.

Week 31 - round up

What a weekend of football!

I only got to watch the Manchester United game in it's entirety - as I was busy with other things all weekend.  I did, however, catch some highlights of the other games.  So other than the United game, the following will not be in-depth analysis:

Manchester City, surprisingly dropped points against Sunderland.  I had predicted that City would win this one but only managed a 3-3 draw.  City fans will be disappointed with the final result but should be pleased with the fact that their side came back from 3-1 down.  Balotelli scored a blinder (although his performance was marred by an on-field argument with his team mate, Kolarov).  Kolarov, himself, scored an excellent goal to tie the game up.  Sunderland fans will be thrilled by their team's performance.  This was not one of the games that I expected City to slip up in, and I think that that might be it for the premier league race...

Chelsea beat Villa 4-2 with Torres being involved in all the goals.  However, the big talking point was the news that Villa's captain Stilyan Petrov (who I had predicted would have a big impact on this game) was diagnosed with leukemia.  My best wishes go out to 'Stan' as he seems to be a stand up dude and definitely a very talented player.  This season has been tough for football players - Abidal, Muamba, Petrov and Bryan robson have all dealt with serious health concerns and the legendary Gary Speed unfortunately took his own life.  Here's to hoping Petrov gets better soon.

Liverpool lost to Sunderland 2-0.  Liverpool are slowly turning into a laughing stock, I'm afraid.  With Carroll's diving and Reina's red card, luckily Daglish had to answer more about those silly events than his team's abject performance.  Liverpool had a strong shout for a handball, but cannot claim that they deserved any points from this game.  Here's to hoping that they can finish out the season strongly and win the FA cup.

Tottenham beat Swansea City and, in my opinion, are back on track for that 3rd place finish I predicted.

Arsenal lost to QPR.  This was the most surprising result of the weekend.  Not surprising, however, was that Adel Taraabt was involved.  Taraabt is one of the most naturally gifted footballers in the premier league.  His attitude and work ethic leave a lot to be desired, however.  I'm guessing he'll be moving away from QPR this summer as I still believe that they will get relegated - and, frankly, they deserve it after the way they treated Warnock.

Manchester United beat Blackburn 2-0.  At one point, United had 81% of the possession but had only one shot on target.  That is how resolute the Blackburn team was - until the 80th minute.  They stacked up two banks of four and gave United tons of time on the ball.  However, as soon as the ball was played anywhere near the penalty box, it was clear that the Blackburn players were ready to throw their bodies on the line.  When Valencia finally scored (with a shot/cross) that took Robinson by surprise, Blackburn lost their resolve and let in another well-placed goal by Ashley Young.  David de Gea, United's goalkeeper, yet again turned out a man-of-the-match performance as he made three brilliant saves to keep United in the game.  United are now 5 points clear of City and might be as many as 8 clear by the time City play Arsenal this Sunday.  Squeeky bum time.  It was interesting to see how United lined up - they played a 4-3-3 consisting of the expected back 4 - Rafael, Evans, Rio and Evra, a midfield trio of Carrick, Scholes and the unexpected Jones, and a forward line of Chicha with Valencia and Rooney shunted to support from the inside forward position.

The reason United played three in the middle was so that Jones could challenge Yakubu in the air; that ploy worked well, especially as the Yak had dominated United in the fixture at Old Trafford.  However, as Rooney was played out left, United lost some of their creative edge and definitely lacked the width.  poor Evra was playing as an auxiliary left winger for most of the game.  Valencia was undoubtedly the greatest threat in the entire game and whipped in cross after cross that nobody could get to.  Left backs must have nightmares of coming up against Antonio - he is simply the best winger in the league.  Finally, Fergie threw on Welbeck, Giggs and Young and it restored the balance and threat of 4-4-2 that United seemed to prefer.    Chicharito's performance was marred by terrible first touches and some erratic passing.  Both Welbeck and Chicha are having disappointing ends to their season and Fergie might be ruing his decision of banishing Dimitar Berbatov.

Next up - preview of week 32.

Week 31 - preview

Aston Villa vs Chelsea
I expect Chelsea to take the three points in this one.  Aston Villa has been poor all season - especially against the big clubs and are now dealing with the injury to their main striker, Darren Bent.  Gabby Agbonlahor can be a serious threat on his day, but luckily for Chelsea, his days are few and far between.  If Aston Villa are to take anything in this game, both Stiliyan Petrov and Charles N'Zogbia will have to boss the midfield.  This may prove difficult has Chelsea will play three in the middle - in a 4-3-3 formation - likely to be Ramires, Essien and Meireles.  It will be interesting to see how Chelsea's manager, Robert deMatteo will rotate the front three after a successful (but tiresome) excursion midweek in the champions league.  It's likely that Drogba will start with Sturridge making way for Malouda and probably Kalou - after his goal in the aforementioned game.  Torres will certainly play a part - probably off the bench.  This a game that requires a fit John Terry, or else Emile Heskey will boss Luiz/Cahill in the air.  I predict 0-2 win for Chelsea.

City vs Sunderland
Obviously, City are favorites to take all three points here - especially now that Kompany has been declared fit for Saturday's game.  Although City have been struggling up front as of late, I think the presence of Tevez will galvanize the team into putting a couple of goals past Sunderland.  Having said that, Martin O'Neill's side has been performing well with Sessegnon and the-man-who-could-not-hit-the-side-of-a-barn Nicolas Bendtner scoring goals for the mid table side.  If Sunderland are to get anything out of this game, they will have to utilize the width afforded to many teams by City.  City tend to operate through the middle and their three man central midfield is often susceptible to good wing play.  That is, of course, if you can get past Yaya Toure.  I have a feeling Kieran Richardson will have a key role to play in this game and may provide an assist.  I predict a 2-1 win for City.

QPR vs Arsenal
QPR are in trouble - there's no doubt about that.  They are currently in the relegation zone and I honestly believe they are going to stay there.  Arsenal are going to trounce QPR and it may end up being a case of how many can they score.  With Joey barton and Taraabt in the wilderness and Cisse suspended, I cannot see QPR scoring any goals.  The only chance QPR may have is if the Arsenal players take the game for granted.  Van Persie will run riot in this game and I expect at least a goal and an assist from him.  Walcott may also have a good game and be able to utilize the slow wing backs of QPR.  Personally, I would like to see the Ox start.  4-0 to Arsenal.

Newcastle vs Liverpool

Tale of two sets of strikers

Definitely the pick of the games of Round 31.  In august if you had told me that Newcastle would be 8 points above Liverpool and would be equal on points with Chelsea, I would have told you to lay off the peyote.  Let's think about this - Newcastle SOLD all their stand out players from last season - Andy Carroll (in January), Jose Enrique, Kevin Nolan and Joey Barton.  Meanwhile, Liverpool bought the first two on that list, Downing, Henderson, etc. I cannot state this enough - almost every pundit picked Newcastle for relegation this season and they are currently sitting in sixth place.  If Alan Pardew does not win manager of the year, I will cry.  Liverpool will have to deal with the mercurial brilliance of Cisse and Demba Ba.  I expect ex-united boy Gabby Obertan to have a field day against Martin Kelly and whip in crosses for fun.  Liverpool's away form has been good and I think Downing is starting to find his feet.  Carroll will get a villain's welcome at St. James' Park and it will be interesting to see how he handles the anger directed towards him.  Although newcastle's defense is good in the air, they are fairly leggy, so Suarez may have a big role to play in this game.  His direct running may be the source of Liverpool's goal in the game.  At the other end, I expect big Demba Ba to score.  Game ends 1-1.

Tottenham vs Swansea City
The Spurs train has been somewhat slowed by the Redknapp nonsense and they are also feeling the effects of having been a part of the Fabrice Muamba situation.  They will need all their mental strength to beat my favorite promoted side, Swansea City.  The Swans are a pleasure to watch and are a credit to the premier league.  They are the Athletic Bilbao of the premier league - a side built of small-time players who play the game like it should be played.  I expect Saha to start the game alongside Van derVaart with Bale and Lennon on the wings.  Scotty Parker will play in the middle with the croatian maestro Modric conducting play.  Possession will be controlled by Swansea City and Spurs will win the game from a goal against the run of play.  1-0.

Rovers vs United
Rovers have had a tumultuous season and are currently in the relegation battle.  However, they are the only premier league team (other than City, of course) to beat United at Old Trafford this season.  This sets up a revenge game for the united players and I expect them to be excited to set things right.  United will set up as follows - De gea, Jones /Rafael, Ferdinand, Evans, Evra, Valencia, Young, Scholes, Carrick, Rooney, Chicharito.  Ferguson will drop Welbeck to the bench after a poor showing in the Fulham game and I expected Chicharito to exploit the slow Rovers defense.  Valencia will be a handful and Rovers will probably (and they would be stupid not to) double-mark him, allowing the United right back to bomb forward on the overlap.  While it often works, both the United right backs are very young (19 years) and are defensively suspect on the counter attack.  Therefore, this game will be decided on United's right (Rovers' left).  I expected United to win 3-1.  Chicharito double and a midfielder's goal

Penalties - Is there a United bias?

During Monday's United vs Fulham game, Carrick tripped Danny Murphy in the box and a penalty was not awarded. When the replay is slowed down, it seems clear that Carrick makes contact with Danny Murphy and therefore it is a penalty. However, when watched in real time (and remember the referee does not have the advantage of replays), it seems that Carrick plays the ball first. The reason for this is that the ball changes direction in line with Carrick's contact. What had actually occurred was that the ball came off Murphy - which is why it changed direction. So, in summary - was it a penalty? I don't care what any United fan says - yes, it was. Is it understandable why the referee did not catch it? Absolutely.

Over the years, every time United win a penalty or one is not called against them - we hear the usual "The FA/refs are in United/Fergie's pocket". In fact, just today, Patrick Vieira - the City ambassador (how exactly an ex-Arsenal player who played for the club for a few months is now their ambassador is beyond me) - suggested that United get preferential treatment when it comes to PKs. There certainly have been many controversial penalty calls at Old Trafford. So, do the facts support this claim?

Telegraph article
The first set of statistics I found were from the Telegraph - a well respected newspaper (as respected as journos can be, I guess) - and it does not seem to support the United bias:

Link to telegraph article

For those of you who do not want to read through the link, let me summarize for you. You see, what the website does is gives an index score based on the # of penalties teams have conceded at home against the # of games played at home. Therefore, the higher the ratio, the more likely the team is to concede PKs at their home ground. The range is 0.05(Chelsea) to 0.17 (West Ham United). United comes in 8th out of 20 with a ratio of 0.07. This translates to - United concede 7 penalties out of every 100 games they play at Old Trafford.

As a scientist, I understand the power of statistics to manipulate/misrepresent data. Therefore, I comprehend these numbers in two ways:

1. United is more likely than many clubs (including Spurs, Liverpool and Chelsea) to concede PKs at home. (this is the easy interpretation).
2. United is neither more nor less likely than other clubs (especially the big clubs) to concede PKs at home - I would argue that a difference of ~0.02 is not really a statistical significant difference. I think this is the correct interpretation.

United-biased article

The next set of data I found was from a website run by United fans - so I understand that the analysis of the data can be annoying to read for non-United fans. I encourage you to skip through the rhetoric and head straight to the table:

Link to stretford-enders article

This is the analysis of the current season and reveals the # of penalties awarded for and against each team - both home and away. United has been awarded 5 penalties this season (2 at home and 3 away) and has had 6 penalties awarded against them (1 at home and 5 away). Compare that with any of the other big clubs and you will see that United do not seem to get preferential treatment.

Then why does this idea exist?
I'm not naive enough to think that people just make stuff up for the sake of it. I honestly believe that the people who say that United get more penalties at home and/or United don't concede penalties, say so because they actually believe it. I think that it is a case of a combination of two social psychology-related phenomena:

1. Confirmation bias - This is when there is a prevalent hypothesis and people interpret only data in line with this hypothesis. In our case, people notice when United win dodgy penalties/decisions and forget when decisions go against United.
2. Groupthink - The idea that since other people believe a hypothesis, it must be true.

I hope this clears the "United get favorable PK decisions" idea. I'm curious if anyone else has any data that supports that claim - I have not done enough research admittedly, but I didn't seem to come across DATA (not articles) that support the bias claim. Please feel free to share if you have...

Season review/predictions - United and Chelsea

In the next few posts, I will attempt to briefly review the 2011-2012 season for the big six - United, Chelsea, Tottenham, Liverpool, City and Arsenal. This post will address the first two.

Manchester United
It has been a typical United seasons - some soaring highs (8-2 win against Arsenal, 3-3 draw with Chelsea, etc.) and some prostate lows (6-1 thrashing by City, both games against Bilbao and the general lack of performance in European competition). However, most United fans would agree that winning the premier league would count as a massive success.

Compared to last season, when United's away form was abject, this season has proved to be a success in games away from home. I think that may have to do with the tactical set up rather than just a chance event. Last season, United relied on a tight defense to keep the point total ticking. This season, in the absence of Nemanja vidic, United's play has been based on attacking football relying on the creativity of Giggsy, Carrick, Scholes, Rooney, Nani and Valencia. Carrick has finally recovered the sort of form that he was in when he first signed for United in 2006.

In order to win the premier league, United has to navigate a couple of tricky fixtures - Blackburn, City and Sunderland away. However, I still predict them to do the job and win the league by 2 points.

Player of the season - Johnny Evans. Despite his fault in the City thrashing, Evans has been the best defender at United this season. His reading of the game is exceptional and he has added an ability to carry the ball forward - much like Rio used to do. His composure has also improved.

Signing of the season - David de Gea. Most people would give this one to phil Jones. However, I think De Gea has proven all his critics wrong in the latter half of the season and is probably the biggest reason why United are still in this title race - let alone in sitting pretty on top of the league.

Flop of the season - Anderson. Anderson came to United as one of the most sought-after young talents in Europe. After a great first season, Ando has regressed into an injury-prone, erratic and somewhat disinterested player. His only saving grace is that United are really short in midfield.

Villain of the season Patrice Evra. His celebration in front of Luis Suarez, after the win at Old Trafford, was unwarranted and pathetic - especially from the club captain. In my opinion, he was not vilified enough for the same.

Chelsea
Predicted by many, at the start of the season, to be the only real challengers to Manchester City, Chelsea has had a topsy-tuvy year to say the least. From the annual manager firing to the re-emergence of the old guard, Chelsea are the only english club still in the Champions league and long may that continue.

The problem for Chelsea is the same problem they have faced for the last 5 years: The shadow of a certain Mr. Mourinho. Unfortunately, despite the attempts of Andres villas-boas (AVB) to erect a new style of football at the club, the direct style of Mourinho is instilled in the likes of Drogba, Terry and Lampard. Honestly, I enjoyed watching Chelsea play under AVB - Chelsea had a fluency to their game that was refreshing to watch. Particularly their performance in the QPR game - where despite being down to 9 men - they bossed the match - gave me belief that Chelsea were headed in the right direction. Obviously, what they were missing was a trust in the manager which lead to nervousness within the ranks. Given Chelsea's fixture list (tricky games against Liverpool and Arsenal), I predict they will be unable to climb out of 5th place, but will reach the final of the champions league - this may be counter-intuitive, but I think they may be capable of beating Barcelona but will lose to Madrid in the final... After which Di Matteo will be replaced with Bielsa (manager at Athletico Bilbao) in the summer.

Player of the season - Raul Meireles - Sure he may have an erratic game. But, Meireles has become an indispensible portion of the Chelsea machine since he signed from Liverpool. His distribution is fantastic and he has bulked up to add more of a physical presence. It is because of Meireles that the drop in form of Mikel and Essien has not been more disastrous for Chelsea.

Signing of the season - Juan Mata - One of my favorite players in the premier league. Skill, vision, speed - he has everything. Probably the key to a certain Mr. Torres rediscovering his form.

Flop of the season - No prizes for guessing this one - Fernando torres. Although his performances have improved lately, Torres' goal-scoring ratio is outrageously poor for a player of his ability. It is hard to understand what is going on - and it is incorrect to simply blame Chelsea - his performances started dropping before the 2010 world cup. Let's not forget THAT miss against United...

Villain of the season - John Terry - you know - the nicest guy in football.

How I came to be a United fan

Ah to be a United fan these days. On the one hand, you have all the success and glory to keep you happy. On the other hand, everyone thinks you are a glory-hunting, bandwagon-jumping, fickle fool who is one 70-year-old's retirement away from becoming a Manchester City fan. So before I even begin to address other football related issues, I think it is imperative to recall my history as a United fan.

Growing up in

India, cricket was my #1 sport of choice. In fact, I was only exposed to Manchester United via my older brother, who had a really cool way of saying the name. One of my first memories of using the words 'Manchester United' is rather embarrassing. I was in the sixth grade, and had just started understanding (read: appreciating) the opposite sex. In a rather cruel analysis of how 'un-curvy' a certain, older ninth grader was, I dismissed her as being short and a 'bit of a Man-chest-er United'. I know - incredibly lame.

Fast forward a couple of years, and I had slowly heard about the Beckham phenomenon and had watched some goals on some highlight shows. However, I was still largely obsessed with cricket as far as watching sport was concerned. All that was about to change as ESPN/Star Sports - the prevalent sporting channels during the late 90s - started broadcasting more football games on TV.

I was flicking through the tele on a random evening and happened to change to the sports channels in the hope of catching some Tendulkar highlights. It was a United-Arsenal game. United were leading 4-1. The ball was cleared to Giggsy at the halfway line and he rather non-chalantly chipped the ball and almost scored, only to be rejected by the bar. A certain Mr. Dwight Yorke managed to put the ball past a hapless David Seaman. United went on to win 6-1. A new fan was born. I could not get enough of United's style of play - 4-4-2 with 2 exceptional and diverse wingers in Giggsy and Becks, Scholesy and Keano commanding the midfield, Yorke and Cole banging in goals for fun. It was orgasmic.

This was the year 2000. I would later find out that United had just won the treble the previous year and were at their scintillating best. Over the next season, I watched every single game and followed United as they won the premier league and devastatingly lost in the semi-final to Deportivo la Coruna. Two games stand out for me - the 5-3 win against Tottenham and the 5-2 win against West Ham. I must admit - my passport picture conveys how I had fashioned my hair after a certain Mr. Ruud van Nistelrooy.

As I moved to the United States in 2002 to pursue my higher education, I found that there was basically no coverage of the premier league. To make matters worse, I had to learn the word 'soccer'. During this time, I followed games on ESPN gamecast. I cannot tell you how frustrating it is to have to hit refresh and hope that your team is winning. Especially during those years - when Arsenal were beginning to play their very best and Chelsea was starting to buy the very best. At least I got to watch United in the Champions league - although that was not fruitful either - whether you consider the Ronaldo-mediated destruction by Madrid or the Timmy Howard/Mourinho-inspired elimination by porto.

Those were trying times.

Over time, I learned about the illustrious history of Manchester United. I learned about club legends - from Billy Meredith to Sir Bobby Charlton, from George Best to Eric Cantona, from Paddy Crerand and Bill Foulkes to Gary Neville and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, from Sir Matt Busby to Sir Alex Ferguson. I learned about the tragedy of Munich and the lost brilliance of the flowers of Manchester. I learned that Duncan Edwards is eulogized as the greatest player to have ever graced a football pitch. I learned that United experienced European glory and relegation within a 10 year period. I learned that a united legend, Denis Law, cruelly scored the goal that sent United into the second division. I learned about failed managers who tried to emulate Sir Matt Busby. I learned about rivalries with Liverpool, City, Arsenal and Leeds. I learned the phrases "scouse cunt", "manc twat", "man shitty", "salford rags", etc. I learned and I loved it all.

Luckily, soon enough all sorts of illegal websites were broadcasting games and I could finally watch my beloved United once more! I estimate that since 2007, I have missed about 10 United games total - if someone is filming the game, I find a way to watch it. Anyone who knows me knows that nowadays I plan everything around United games - my social life, my experiments, everything.  And someday soon, when I have enough money, I WILL watch a game at the theater of dreams.

So there you have it - a synopsis of my time following United.

I hope you will share how you came to support your own clubs! I'm curious to know how/why we all follow who we do.