Round up of Week 32

Sunderland 0-0 Tottenham
The game ended 0-0 and that is about all you can say for a dire, tactical game where neither side deserved to win.  With Arsenal and Chelsea winning this weekend, Harry will need to inspire his team to some form in the last 6 games if he is to finish above Arsenal and/or win a Champions league spot.

Liverpool 1-1 Villa
Suarez had a good game overall and Gerrard's crosses were devastating.  However, Chris Herd's early goal had the home fans in a nervous mood.  Especially given that it was a result of some uncertain goalkeeping by their debutante, Doni.  It is fair to say that he did settle down after a shaky start.  Liverpool dominated the game from a possession (~70% to 30%) and shots (24 to 5) standpoint.  The telling statistic was that only 5 out of their 24 shots were on target.  King Kenny often cites bad luck as the villain of the season, but it is clear that the Anfield club are in dire need of an out-and-out striker.  I continue to be baffled by the decision to leave Maxi out of the game entirely.  To add insult to injury, Liverpool end the weekend a point behind their local rivals Everton - who they will be playing very soon in the FA cup.

Chelsea 2-1 Wigan
Most fans will talk about the decision that went United's way this weekend (more on that later), but on Saturday a key decision fell in the favor of another big club.  Ivanovic was clearly offside when he scored Chelsea's first goal.  Wigan can be proud of their performance at Stamford Bridge as they went toe-to-toe on possession and shots on goal.  However, the deciding factor in the game came late in stoppage time.  When the in-form Torres (what?)  showed brilliant technique to volley a pinpoint Drogba cross only to see it hit the far post.  Juan Mata was perfectly placed for a tap-in and Chelsea won the game.  I had earlier predicted Chelsea to end in 5th, but with Spurs showing shaky form, Chelsea have a strong shout to pip them for that final champions league spot.  Currently they are 3 points behind spurs and even on points with Newcastle United.

Manchester United 2-0 QPR
I recently wrote a blog about how the data shows that United does not get any more/less penalties than other teams.  However, this is the exact sort of game that rivals fans cite when they state the opposite.  My initial reaction to seeing the 'tackle' was - "Ashley Young dived."  The replay showed that although there was some contact, it was obvious that Young was going down before the contact was made.  Therefore, I would still maintain that it was a dive.  What made it worse was the fact that Young was blatantly offside when the ball was played, so it should have been a non-issue in the first place.  I firmly believe that diving should be punished retrospectively and I hope FIFA/UEFA/FA will implement that rule starting next season.  Once Derry was sent off, you knew United were going to win.  Rooney put away the penalty and United dominated the rest of the game, topping off with a Scholesy beauty.

It must be said that even with 10 men, QPR did not give United a ton of clear cut chances.  There were a couple of exceptions, of course.  In my preview, I had predicted that Taraabt  would be found wanting on his defensive duties.  That prediction almost came through as he allowed United's right back, Rafael to waltz into the 18 yard box and Scholesy played him a delicious dinged pass that landed in his stride.  Rafael tried to chip the goalkeeper but Kenny pushed the ball onto the post.  Another great opportunity was a vicious strike from my man-of-the-match, Michael Carrick, who managed to strike the upright.

It's a luxury to be able to criticize your team when they are sitting pretty on top of the league, but that is exactly what I will be doing - Rooney and Welbeck had poor games.  Despite a well-taken penalty, Rooney's overall performance was disappointing.  His passing and distribution were erratic and he was involved in an ugly tackle towards the start of the game.  Welbeck is young and a hard-working forward, but he is currently experiencing a drop in form.  Chicharito has also been struggling with second-season-itis.  Would Fergie please bring Berbatov out of the wilderness for the last few games? Today's game was begging for Berba's control and vision up-top and home games against Villa, Swansea and Everton would be perfect opportunities for Berba-type games.

Either way, with United sitting 8 points clear, the title will be staying at Old Trafford.

Arsenal 1-0 Manchester City
The much-hyped game of the weekend was rather disappointing overall.  I was surprised that Tevez did not start and that Benayoun did.  Also, why Wenger keeps picking Walcott is beyond me.  Yes, he has scored in a few games, but he is surely better coming off the bench in big games? With Clichy continuously showing walcott to the outside, and matching him for pace, Walcott was completely nullified.  Oxlade-Chamberlain, on the other hand, is capable of coming onto his left foot and creating a moment of magic.

I was also baffled by Arsenal's decision to constantly cross balls in the air.  With RVP coming deep, when the ball was sprayed to the wings, Arsenal were trying to aim for either Benayoun, Walcott or the on-rushing Rosicky.  Kompany, at least 6 inches taller than all of them, had no trouble heading out crosses.

I was a little disappointed with the Arsenal players' constant rolling around trying to get players carded.  I cannot count how many times the likes of Sagna, Santo and Walcott fell to the floor as though they had been shot.  Only to jump up like bunny-rabbits once the foul had been called.  Having said that, NOTHING excuses Balotelli's first tackle on man-of-the-match Alex Song.  That was a career ending tackle.  Luckily for Song, Balotelli caught him towards the top of the shin-guard... any higher... and that was a broken leg at best.  Balotelli was at his frustrating best in this game - yelling at teammates and shooting when a pass was a better option.  Eventually he did get sent off and deservedly so.  This sending off is his 4th of the season and with the widely-expected retrospective ban for his tackle on song, I am expecting that Balotelli will be missing for at least 5 games.  In fact, I am going to argue that he might has played his last game in a Citizens shirt as I expect him to move on in the summer.

Because you are an asshole

For the record, what a magnificent goal that was by Arteta.  Mikael Arteta was the player signed by Wenger to replace Nasri.  He is an intelligent player who sits deeper than Nasri did and is a very good passer of the ball.  During his time at Everton, he did not score a lot of goals, but when he did - they tended to be memorable ones.  That strike was deserving of winning any game.

After City went a goal down, Mancini finally put Tevez on, but by then it was way too late and Arsenal should have had a second right at the end.

Penalties - Is there a United bias?

During Monday's United vs Fulham game, Carrick tripped Danny Murphy in the box and a penalty was not awarded. When the replay is slowed down, it seems clear that Carrick makes contact with Danny Murphy and therefore it is a penalty. However, when watched in real time (and remember the referee does not have the advantage of replays), it seems that Carrick plays the ball first. The reason for this is that the ball changes direction in line with Carrick's contact. What had actually occurred was that the ball came off Murphy - which is why it changed direction. So, in summary - was it a penalty? I don't care what any United fan says - yes, it was. Is it understandable why the referee did not catch it? Absolutely.

Over the years, every time United win a penalty or one is not called against them - we hear the usual "The FA/refs are in United/Fergie's pocket". In fact, just today, Patrick Vieira - the City ambassador (how exactly an ex-Arsenal player who played for the club for a few months is now their ambassador is beyond me) - suggested that United get preferential treatment when it comes to PKs. There certainly have been many controversial penalty calls at Old Trafford. So, do the facts support this claim?

Telegraph article
The first set of statistics I found were from the Telegraph - a well respected newspaper (as respected as journos can be, I guess) - and it does not seem to support the United bias:

Link to telegraph article

For those of you who do not want to read through the link, let me summarize for you. You see, what the website does is gives an index score based on the # of penalties teams have conceded at home against the # of games played at home. Therefore, the higher the ratio, the more likely the team is to concede PKs at their home ground. The range is 0.05(Chelsea) to 0.17 (West Ham United). United comes in 8th out of 20 with a ratio of 0.07. This translates to - United concede 7 penalties out of every 100 games they play at Old Trafford.

As a scientist, I understand the power of statistics to manipulate/misrepresent data. Therefore, I comprehend these numbers in two ways:

1. United is more likely than many clubs (including Spurs, Liverpool and Chelsea) to concede PKs at home. (this is the easy interpretation).
2. United is neither more nor less likely than other clubs (especially the big clubs) to concede PKs at home - I would argue that a difference of ~0.02 is not really a statistical significant difference. I think this is the correct interpretation.

United-biased article

The next set of data I found was from a website run by United fans - so I understand that the analysis of the data can be annoying to read for non-United fans. I encourage you to skip through the rhetoric and head straight to the table:

Link to stretford-enders article

This is the analysis of the current season and reveals the # of penalties awarded for and against each team - both home and away. United has been awarded 5 penalties this season (2 at home and 3 away) and has had 6 penalties awarded against them (1 at home and 5 away). Compare that with any of the other big clubs and you will see that United do not seem to get preferential treatment.

Then why does this idea exist?
I'm not naive enough to think that people just make stuff up for the sake of it. I honestly believe that the people who say that United get more penalties at home and/or United don't concede penalties, say so because they actually believe it. I think that it is a case of a combination of two social psychology-related phenomena:

1. Confirmation bias - This is when there is a prevalent hypothesis and people interpret only data in line with this hypothesis. In our case, people notice when United win dodgy penalties/decisions and forget when decisions go against United.
2. Groupthink - The idea that since other people believe a hypothesis, it must be true.

I hope this clears the "United get favorable PK decisions" idea. I'm curious if anyone else has any data that supports that claim - I have not done enough research admittedly, but I didn't seem to come across DATA (not articles) that support the bias claim. Please feel free to share if you have...